By Joshua Townsley
For political scientists, the 2015 UK general election will be one of the most exciting in years. The traditional Labour-Conservative-Lib Dem dominance is being challenged from all sides. On the right, the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) has surged, winning the European elections in 2014 and gaining its first MPs. On the left, the Green Party is gaining in the polls, at times running neck-and-neck with Nick Clegg’s Liberal Democrats. In Scotland, a resurgent Scottish National Party (SNP) looks set to make staggering electoral gains. With the two larger parties, Labour and the Conservatives, virtually tied nationally, the likelihood of either party winning enough seats to form a government alone seems unlikely. In 2010, the three largest parties garnered 88% of the vote. Polling shows that this has fallen to 74% today. Insurgency on all sides of the political spectrum means that the British electorate face an unpredictable election and a variety of potential hung parliament scenarios.
For political scientists, the 2015 UK general election will be one of the most exciting in years. The traditional Labour-Conservative-Lib Dem dominance is being challenged from all sides. On the right, the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) has surged, winning the European elections in 2014 and gaining its first MPs. On the left, the Green Party is gaining in the polls, at times running neck-and-neck with Nick Clegg’s Liberal Democrats. In Scotland, a resurgent Scottish National Party (SNP) looks set to make staggering electoral gains. With the two larger parties, Labour and the Conservatives, virtually tied nationally, the likelihood of either party winning enough seats to form a government alone seems unlikely. In 2010, the three largest parties garnered 88% of the vote. Polling shows that this has fallen to 74% today. Insurgency on all sides of the political spectrum means that the British electorate face an unpredictable election and a variety of potential hung parliament scenarios.
 |
|
|
The number of
competitive parties and the closeness between Labour and the Conservatives make
the 2015 general election tough to predict. However, many are trying to do just
that. Using the latest national opinion polling, combined with constituency
level polling provided by Lord Ashcroft, various forecasters are predicting the
number of seats each party will win in May. The latest predicted seat ranges
are shown here, along with the 2010 results.
 |
|
|
These forecasts will
fluctuate constantly during the campaign, as the latest opinion polls are fed
into the models. However, 4 broad predictions will remain relatively constant.
Lab v Con
Firstly, it is expected
that the Conservatives will lose a small number of seats. Having secured 36% of
the vote in 2010, the party will struggle to make seat gains unless it polls higher
than this in May. The party is currently on around 34%, so this seems unlikely
given Labour’s recovery in the polls since 2010. Having gained only 29%
of the vote in 2010, Labour looks set to gain seats with its current 34% in the
polls. Ed Miliband’s party will hope to take seats from the Conservatives and
Liberal Democrats in England and Wales.
SNP Surge
However, Labour’s gains
look set to be held back by trouble in Scotland. Following the independence
referendum, the Scottish Nationalists (SNP) have captured an anti-Westminster
sentiment and seen their popularity and membership soar. Nicola Sturgeon’s
party looks set to secure over 40% of the vote in Scotland, which should see
them return over 40 seats to make them the third largest party at Westminster.
The vast majority of these seats will come from Labour, hampering their chances
of becoming the largest party.
Lib Dem Losses
Thirdly, the Liberal
Democrats look set to endure substantial losses. The popularity of Nick Clegg’s
party has suffered greatly in coalition, and most forecasters expect the party
to lose around half of its 56 seats. Lib Dem MPs tend to be relatively popular
locally however, and the party could benefit from tactical voting as it often
has in the past. These factors could see them return 30+ seats on a good night.
Nevertheless, Labour, the SNP, and the Conservatives all expect to make gains
at the Lib Dems’ expense on election night.
UKIP Underwhelmed
Finally, while nationally
strong, forecasters expect UKIP to struggle to win more than 5 seats. Despite
seeing a surge in electoral support since 2010, UKIP still faces the obstacles of
a first past the post electoral system that punishes smaller parties. Farage’s
party enjoys relatively strong support in coastal constituencies between Kent
and Lincolnshire, which represent their best chances of gaining MPs.
All To Play For
A version of this article also features on the Filtered.com Blog here, as part of a wider course on British Politics that Joshua Townsley has recently authored, which can be found here.
