The Scottish Independence Referendum in Numbers: A Pocket Book Analysis

In this article James Downes provides a summary of the key statistics that influenced the outcome of the Referendum.

After months of campaigning by both the Yes and No campaigns alongside a night of unfolding drama, Scotland voted “No” to Independence at 06:08 am.


The Breakdown

According to the Political Scientist Prof. John Curtice from Strathclyde University: 

·         55% voted “No” and 45% “Yes.”
·         “No” won by 2,0001, 926 to 1,617,989 “Yes”
·         Turnout around 84.5%
·         3,429 rejected papers

The Yes Vote

The local authorities with the highest proportion of “Yes” votes were:
Dundee: 57%
West Dunbartonshire: 54%
Glasgow: 53%
North Lanarkshire: 51%
The other local authorities said “No.”


Key Stats: Demographics of the “No Vote”

The No vote was higher in places with:
  1. Middle-class population
  2. Older generation (65+)
  3. Rural Scotland
  4. High Migrant Population

How “Better Together” won the Referendum

In sum, the “No” win can be attributed to the following:

1.    Identity & Attitudes: That Scottish feel British
2.    Economics: Risk Factor
3.    Psychology: Perceptions of Fear towards Independence

The Future

Though Scotland has voted “No” to being an Independent country, it is clear that Scotland will never be the same again. David Cameron’s earlier speech outlined UK-wide changes ‘to build a better future’. Negotiations must now take place on constitutional change and the leaders of the three UK parties have promised that this will take place. More powers must be granted to the Scottish Parliament and these negotiations should take place immediately.
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